Blog: Are You Prepared for the Next Big Earthquake?

I moved to Southern California more than 25 years ago, from good 'ol Iowa. In my youth, I survived two tornados. Surviving a tornado is simple: Get as far underground as you can and wait. A few months after moving to San Diego, I experienced my first earthquake. I was returning from my honeymoon with my wife in October 1987 and we stayed overnight at her mother's home in Brea. The Whittier earthquake hit. It was a 5.9 magnitude.  

I woke up to the sound that was a cross between the sound of a freight train and rocks grinding. Everything in our room was falling to the floor and the lights were swinging. As any good Iowan would try to do, I headed to the basement—only to find that there aren't any basements here in California.

As damaging as the Whittier earthquake was, people were still mobile. Food, water, and emergency supplies were readily available. First responders were quick to arrive on the scene. And life just kept on.

The same thing could be said of the Northridge earthquake. Thousands were temporarily homeless, 9,000 homes were without electricity for days, 12,500 structures were moderately to severely damaged, roadways were destroyed. But it was only a hiccup in our daily routines.

As Californians, we are resilient. We live in earthquake country. We not only experience earthquakes, we expect them.

That expectation, however, is our biggest liability when it comes to the San Andreas Fault. The best way that Californians deal with earthquakes is to live in denial. And that denial leads us to do no pre-planning or preparation. We will just deal with it when it comes, right? That may work for other earthquakes, but not the San Andreas.

The southern tip of the San Andreas has not ruptured in more than 320 years. It has the highest probability of being the next big earthquake in California, according to the California Emergency Management Agency. Its threat has been upgraded from a potential 7.8 to an 8.1 over a 340-mile stretch, with the tremors lasting for minutes, according to U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Lucy Jones.

This is no average California earthquake. As it ruptures, it will move the upper surface 30 feet in opposite directions. Roads will be severed, some destroyed from landslides, leaving us cut off from the rest of the country. As many as 10,000 aftershocks are predicted in the first few months. Communications will be down.

The three water lines that allow us to import 90 percent of our water go directly across the San Andreas, along with the natural gas pipelines. It is projected that more than 5,000 people will die, more than 50,000 will be seriously injured, hundreds of thousands will be homeless. And more than 20 million people will be impacted by the aftermath. Total economic impact will be in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

This will not be a "typical" California earthquake. This will be the mother of all earthquakes.

After the shaking, we will be cut off from the lifelines that we take advantage of every day. We will be without clean drinking water for as long as six months or more. The rail system will be down, the freeways will not be operable, the harbors will be shut down, airports destroyed. We will be cut off from our food sources. The power grids are projected to be down for months. In some areas it could be 12 months or longer before normal power is restored. Just what will you do to heat water, bathe, cook food, use for lighting? What will you eat? And most important, what will you drink?

The biggest part of this crisis is that the people of Southern California are not ready for it. We continue to live in denial ("it won't happen in my lifetime"—or worse, "it won't be that bad"). We live in an entitlement society. We believe the government has to and will take care of us. But people live in ignorance if they believe that there is a government agency that exists that is going to come in and provide food and water for the 20 million people that will need it in the aftermath of the next Big One. Consider Hurricane Katrina and multiply a San Andreas disaster by four to five times.

Survival from the San Andreas relies on self-sufficiency and some sort of planning. I suggest two things: First, understand what the San Andreas earthquake will do. Second, put together a plan to take care of yourself and your family during and after the quake. 

In conjunction with Be Ready Inc., in Oceanside, a disaster preparedness company that has been around for more than 20 years, and local scientists, seismologists, the California Emergency Management Agency, the California Earthquake Authority, and the Red Cross, I have developed a seminar that discusses what can be expected from a large earthquake and what you have to do to prepare for it.

These seminars are free to the public. We can come to your school, church, business, association, or chamber of commerce and provide this seminar. We are also finishing an educational website (www.learntobeready.com) that will provide disaster plans, training videos, free webinars, and downloadable forms that you can use.

I will also be posting blogs over the next few months, giving you ideas and tips on how best to prepare for a San Andreas earthquake or other large-scale disaster. You can e-mail me with your questions at chris@bereadyinc.com (I may use your emails in my upcoming posts).

When it happens, you will either feel secure knowing that you are ready, or you will live in fear of the outcome, wishing that you had given heed to the warnings.